> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.linegap.app/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# High Confidence Props

> The strongest plays — props that pass EV, sample size, recent form, matchup quality, and injury filters simultaneously, isolated from noise.

The Dashboard shows every +EV prop. **High Confidence Props** strips out everything except the plays where multiple supporting factors line up — high EV *and* strong form *and* favorable matchup *and* sufficient sample size.

If you only have time to look at one screen, this is the screen.

## What "high confidence" means

A prop qualifies as high confidence when it passes **all** of these filters simultaneously:

* **Expected Value** at or above the configured threshold (default 5%)
* **Sample size** of 20+ games for the player
* **Recent form** indicator showing positive (hot or steady) trend
* **Favorable matchup** — opponent ranks below average against the player's position in this stat
* **No active injury status** of "Out" or worse

## The probability model

The probability number behind every EV calculation comes from a dual-source model:

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Current Season" icon="calendar-days">
    Player's hit rate on this stat threshold using only current-season games.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Weighted Multi-Season" icon="calendar-week">
    Blend of current + previous seasons, with current season weighted 2× to handle early-season small samples.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

Both probabilities are surfaced in the dashboard's Advanced view, along with confidence intervals. The default EV column uses the weighted estimate.

## Injury-adjusted opportunities

When a key teammate is ruled OUT, Line Gap automatically recomputes the focal player's probability:

* We look at historical games where the same teammate was absent
* Usage rate, attempts, and minutes typically shift
* The probability is boosted (or reduced) based on that historical adjustment

This catches "next man up" opportunities you'd otherwise miss — a backup point guard's player\_assists line goes from boring to interesting the moment the starter is ruled out.

## Filters

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="EV slider" icon="sliders">
    Adjust the minimum EV required. Default 5%; raise it to surface only the strongest edges.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Sport / league" icon="trophy">
    Limit to a specific league (NBA, NFL, NHL, UFC, NCAAB, NCAAF).
  </Card>

  <Card title="Sportsbooks" icon="building-columns">
    Filter to your funded books only.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Prop type" icon="filter">
    Drill into specific stat categories.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

## How to use it

1. **Start here when you're betting from a clean slate.** The signal-to-noise ratio is much higher than the full Dashboard.
2. **Cross-check with sharp signals.** A high-confidence prop with a SYNC or STEAM badge is a particularly strong setup.
3. **Verify lines before placing.** Books move. Always confirm at the book before clicking the bet button.
4. **Track what you bet.** Use the [bet tracker](/features/bankroll-management) so the [CLV Dashboard](/features/clv-tracking) can tell you whether you're systematically beating the close.

## What it can't do

* It can't account for news that broke five minutes ago (always check the [news feed](/features/news-aggregation))
* It can't see line shopping — same prop at a different book may be priced differently. Expand the row to compare.
* It can't predict variance. A 70% probability hit will still miss 30% of the time. Volume matters.