What are High Confidence Props?
High Confidence Props are betting opportunities that pass multiple quality filters:- High Expected Value (EV >10%)
- Strong recent player form (last 5 games)
- Favorable matchup based on opponent defense
- Adequate sample size (20+ games analyzed)
- No injury concerns
How Props are Rated
Each prop receives a confidence score based on:Historical Performance (40%)
- Player’s hit rate on similar lines
- Consistency over last 20 games
- Recent form weighted higher
Advanced Probability Models
Line Gap uses a Dual Probability Model to ensure accuracy:- Current Season Only: Pure performance in the 2024-25 season.
- Weighted Multi-Season: A blend of current and previous season data, weighted heavily towards recent performance (2x weight for current season).
Injury Impact Analysis
Our engine automatically detects when key teammates are injured and adjusts probabilities accordingly:- Usage Boosts: We calculate how a player’s usage rate changes when a specific teammate is out.
- Impact Score: Probabilities are boosted (e.g., +5%) based on historical data from games played without that teammate.
- Context: This ensures you don’t miss “next man up” opportunities.
Matchup Analysis (30%)
- Opponent defensive ranking
- Historical performance vs this opponent
- Pace of game factors
Expected Value (20%)
- Size of edge over sportsbook
- Implied probability vs true probability
- Market efficiency
Context Factors (10%)
- Rest days and back-to-backs
- Home vs away
- Motivation factors
Confidence Levels
Props are categorized into tiers:Elite
90-100% ConfidenceHighest quality opportunities. Multiple factors align perfectly.
Strong
75-89% ConfidenceVery good bets with minor concerns or slightly lower EV.
Good
60-74% ConfidenceSolid opportunities but may have more variance.
High Confidence Features
Compact Card View
Props displayed in easy-to-scan cards showing:- Player name and team
- Prop type and line
- Best odds and sportsbook
- Expected Value percentage
- Confidence rating
- Key insight (why it’s high confidence)
Quick Actions
Each card includes:- View Details: See full statistical breakdown
- Research: Jump to Research Lab for deep dive
- Add to Parlay: Include in parlay builder
- Track: Add to watchlist
Smart Sorting
Sort by:- Confidence score (highest first)
- Expected Value (biggest edge)
- Game time (next to start)
- Prop type (group similar bets)
Understanding the Insights
Each high confidence prop includes a key insight explaining why it’s rated highly: Example Insights: “Averaging 8.2 threes last 5 games vs 5.8 season average”- Recent hot streak identified
- Expect regression analysis accounted for
- Favorable matchup
- Historical data supports increased scoring
- Strong consistency
- Reliable performer
- Home/away split significant
- Venue-specific advantage
How to Use
1
Review Daily Props
Check High Confidence section each morning for fresh opportunities
2
Verify Status
Click “View Details” to confirm:
- Player is not injured
- Game time hasn’t changed
- Odds still available
3
Select Your Plays
Choose 3-5 props across different games for diversification
4
Determine Stake
Higher confidence = larger stake (but never more than 5% bankroll per bet)
5
Place Bets
Act quickly - high confidence props attract sharp money
6
Track Results
Monitor win rate and adjust confidence thresholds
Bankroll Management
Recommended stake sizing by confidence level:| Confidence | Stake % of Bankroll |
|---|---|
| Elite (90-100%) | 3-5% |
| Strong (75-89%) | 2-3% |
| Good (60-74%) | 1-2% |
What Makes a Prop “High Confidence”?
Must-Have Criteria
Expected Value >10%
Expected Value >10%
Significant edge over sportsbook. Lower EV props won’t qualify regardless of other factors.
Minimum 20 Games Sample
Minimum 20 Games Sample
Need sufficient data. Rookies or players returning from injury won’t appear until enough games played.
No Major Injury Concerns
No Major Injury Concerns
Player must be healthy. Questionable/doubtful status disqualifies props.
Reasonable Line
Reasonable Line
Line must be within player’s normal range. Extremely high/low lines have higher variance.
Bonus Factors
Props get extra points for:- Favorable opponent matchup
- Hot recent form (last 5 games)
- Home game advantage
- Fresh legs (rest days)
- Consistent performance (low variance)
Common Questions
Q: Why don’t I see my favorite player? Not every player appears in High Confidence. They must meet all quality thresholds. Check the main Dashboard for more props. Q: Should I bet all High Confidence props? No. Even elite confidence props can lose. Diversify across 3-5 props and manage your bankroll properly. Q: How often are props updated? High Confidence props refresh every time odds are fetched (every 5 minutes via cron jobs). Q: Can I filter by specific prop types? Yes! Use the prop type filter to show only Points, Assists, Rebounds, etc.Performance Tracking
Line Gap tracks historical performance of High Confidence selections:- Hit Rate: Percentage of props that won
- Average EV: Mean expected value
- Actual ROI: Real money profit/loss
- By Confidence Tier: Breakdown of performance by level