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The Dashboard shows every +EV prop. High Confidence Props strips out everything except the plays where multiple supporting factors line up — high EV and strong form and favorable matchup and sufficient sample size. If you only have time to look at one screen, this is the screen.

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What “high confidence” means

A prop qualifies as high confidence when it passes all of these filters simultaneously:
  • Expected Value at or above the configured threshold (default 5%)
  • Sample size of 20+ games for the player
  • Recent form indicator showing positive (hot or steady) trend
  • Favorable matchup — opponent ranks below average against the player’s position in this stat
  • No active injury status of “Out” or worse

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The probability model

The probability number behind every EV calculation comes from a dual-source model:

Current Season

Player’s hit rate on this stat threshold using only current-season games.

Weighted Multi-Season

Blend of current + previous seasons, with current season weighted 2× to handle early-season small samples.
Both probabilities are surfaced in the dashboard’s Advanced view, along with confidence intervals. The default EV column uses the weighted estimate.

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Injury-adjusted opportunities

When a key teammate is ruled OUT, Line Gap automatically recomputes the focal player’s probability:
  • We look at historical games where the same teammate was absent
  • Usage rate, attempts, and minutes typically shift
  • The probability is boosted (or reduced) based on that historical adjustment
This catches “next man up” opportunities you’d otherwise miss — a backup point guard’s player_assists line goes from boring to interesting the moment the starter is ruled out.

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Filters

EV slider

Adjust the minimum EV required. Default 5%; raise it to surface only the strongest edges.

Sport / league

Limit to a specific league (NBA, NFL, NHL, UFC, NCAAB, NCAAF).

Sportsbooks

Filter to your funded books only.

Prop type

Drill into specific stat categories.

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How to use it

  1. Start here when you’re betting from a clean slate. The signal-to-noise ratio is much higher than the full Dashboard.
  2. Cross-check with sharp signals. A high-confidence prop with a SYNC or STEAM badge is a particularly strong setup.
  3. Verify lines before placing. Books move. Always confirm at the book before clicking the bet button.
  4. Track what you bet. Use the bet tracker so the CLV Dashboard can tell you whether you’re systematically beating the close.

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What it can’t do

  • It can’t account for news that broke five minutes ago (always check the news feed)
  • It can’t see line shopping — same prop at a different book may be priced differently. Expand the row to compare.
  • It can’t predict variance. A 70% probability hit will still miss 30% of the time. Volume matters.