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A parlay combines multiple bets into one wager. All legs must win — but the odds multiply, so payouts can be substantial. The catch: parlays are usually bad value because books take vig at every leg. The Parlay Builder helps you find the rare cases where the math actually works in your favor (correlated outcomes, mispriced legs, or specific structural plays like middling).

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How it works

1

Pick legs from the dashboard

Add 2–6 props using the bet slip on the +EV dashboard. Each leg keeps its book and price.
2

Review correlation

The builder shows pairwise correlation between legs:
  • Positive correlation — legs likely to hit together (e.g., LeBron over points + Lakers to win, when Lakers winning implies LeBron played well)
  • Negative correlation — legs work against each other (e.g., Lakers under team total + LeBron over points)
  • Neutral — independent or uncorrelated outcomes
3

See cumulative probability

The builder multiplies de-vigged probabilities (with a correlation adjustment when applicable) to estimate the parlay’s true win probability.
4

Check expected value

Compare the book’s parlay payout against your true probability. Positive EV → the parlay is mispriced in your favor.

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Same Game Parlay (SGP)

Same-game parlays are popular because correlated legs feel more natural (“if LeBron has a big game, the Lakers probably won”). Books know this and price SGPs with a built-in correlation premium — usually they’re worse than the math suggests. The builder shows you the correlation-adjusted probability so you can see when an SGP is actually +EV vs when it’s just a fun-looking trap.

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Multi-game parlays

Independent legs across different games. Cleaner math (no correlation) but harder to find genuine +EV — the vig stacks at every leg. Generally only worth pursuing when:
  • Each leg individually has substantial +EV (5%+)
  • You’re parlaying for variance / payout shape, not for math edge
  • A book is offering a parlay-specific boost or insurance promo

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Honest math

Parlays are statistically variance-amplifiers, not value-amplifiers. Even a 4-leg parlay of 60%-probability legs hits only ~13% of the time. If you’re using parlays as your main play type, your bankroll is going to ride a rougher curve than your hit rate suggests. The Parlay Builder doesn’t pretend otherwise. It’s there for the rare case where structure (correlation, mispricing) creates real edge — not as a default play type.

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Coming soon

Per-leg CLV

Tracked as enhancementSurface CLV for each leg of a settled parlay individually, not just the overall ticket. Requires schema work first.

Optimal stake sizing

Tracked as enhancementKelly-criterion-based stake recommendation for the full parlay, given your bankroll size and configured risk preference.